3 Keys 👀 Breaking Down KU-Iowa State

Inside KU's new identity and the numbers that could decide tonight's top-10 showdown

  • 🏀 Top 10 preview: KU @ Iowa State

  • 💰 Pro Money breakdown for tonight’s game

  • 📝 Quick Links: Joel Embiid, Gary Woodland

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Building an Identity: No. 9 KU @ No. 2 Iowa State

A 2025 KU basketball meme

  • 🏟️ Hilton Coliseum

  • 📺 6:00pm CT on ESPN2

  • 💰Current Line: Kansas as a 5.5 point underdog (11:45am CT)

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Quick Look: Iowa State

  • Iowa State (No. 4 Kenpom) brings an elite two-way attack, ranking 8th in offense and 10th in defense

  • Its one loss this year was a 2-point loss to Auburn in Maui

  • Led by three excellent guards in Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones, and Tamin Lipsey

  • Elite in forcing turnovers and taking care of the ball themselves (No. 8 in turnover margin)

  • Plays fast (No. 22 in possession length)

  • Doesn’t rely on the three ball (No. 311 in % of points from three)

Three Keys for KU-Iowa State

1. KU’s Muck it Up Revolution

The most obvious shift in KU’s recent surge is on the defensive side of the ball. You know that.

The less obvious change: The overall identity shift that keys a high-energy attack to steal extra possessions and get high percentage looks.

Just look at the recent change in KU’s offensive rebounding.

  • First 12 games:

    • No. 227 in offensive rebounding %

    • No. 241 in 2nd chance points (9.8 per game)

  • Last 3 games:

    • No. 12 in offensive rebounding %

    • No. 1 in 2nd chance points per game (18.0 per game; largely vs. UCF)

It may not be pretty (you have to miss a lot of shots to score 18 second-chance points per game) but it can work. The plenty-ugly, all-effort style is how KU will get the most out of players like Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams.

And that’s exactly who led the change.

via CBBAnalytics.com

This transformation could be crucial tonight. Iowa State ranks No. 310 in defensive rebounding % in conference play – a rare weakness KU must exploit.

Those few extra points could be the difference.

2. Win the Rim

Iowa State excels at forcing mid-range jumpers – exactly what derails KU's offense. The numbers tell the story:

 In KU’s 12 wins:

  • No. 32 in shots at the rim

  • No. 34 in rim FG%

  • No. 211 in shots in the paint, but not at the rim

  • No. 120 in making those shots

 In KU’s 3 losses:

  • No. 265 in shots at the rim

  • No. 272 in rim FG%

  • No. 15 in attempts in the paint, but not at the rim

  • No. 361 in making those shots

The good news? Iowa State struggles to protect the rim when teams get there.

KU must play with energy, swinging the ball from side-to-side. It can’t stick in one place.

Otherwise, you’re playing right into Iowa State’s hands.

3. Do not allow a “Kill Shot”

A “kill shot” is a scoring run of 10-0 or more for one team, coined by data scientist Evan Miya.

  • A team with a 10-0 run wins 71% of the time.

  • A team with more kill shots than its opponents wins 81% of the time.

Iowa State ranks third nationally in kill shots.

At the same time, KU hasn’t allowed many runs. Its given up the second-fewest kill shots.

Want to avoid dealing with Hilton Magic? Keep Iowa State’s "kill shot count to zero.

🔮 Prediction

KU’s didn’t show up in its two road games in top-tier environments earlier this year (Creighton and Missouri).

I like the front-court matchup for the Jayhawks (if KJ Adams doesn’t force midrange jumpers). And KU’s defensive guard play can make life difficult for Iowa State.

But I’d like to see KU show up for a complete 40 minutes in the most difficult road games before taking them.

Iowa State 73, Kansas 66

NOTE: There is an injury rumor developing about Iowa State wing Milan Momcilovic (see thebetting section below). He shoots 48.3% from three at home and his absence would take stress off KU’s defense.

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💰Betting Breakdown

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

  • Opening line: Kansas as a 5.5 point underdog

  • Current Line: Kansas as a 5.5 point underdog (11:50am CT)

  • Betting Splits: 

    • DraftKings: 50% of bets on Kansas, 50% of money on Kansas (via VSiN)

    • Circa Sports: 50% of bets on Kansas, 62% of money on Kansas (via VSiN)

💰 Analysis: The betting line is all over the place Wednesday morning.

It appears some “Pro Money” came in early on Iowa State. The line jumped to 6.5 points Tuesday night. It even got as high as 7 points on CircaSports early Wednesday.

At 10:35am CT, however, the line shifted in a major way: Kansas was suddenly a 5 point-underdog before settling in at +5.5.

I looked around and couldn’t find any see any single bet moving the line in KU’s direction. Best I can tell is that the line movement is related to an unconfirmed rumor that Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic is out for tonight’s game.

TL;DR: Iowa State looked like the “Pro Money” play before injury rumors made things weird this morning.

Bonus: The under has also appears to be a pro play.

🏀 Watch this one-minute clip of Joel Embiid’s breakout game at Iowa State.

🏀 Action Network broke down tonight’s game entirely from a betting perspective.

⛳️ Gary Woodland had a surprising and cool story about flying with a former President.

 🏐 Volleyball player Caroline Bien became KU’s first Academic All-American since 2013. Check out the announcement here.

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