• 🏀 Kansas vs. St John’s prediction

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A narrow path to beat St. John’s

Kansas vs. St. John's | Sunday, ~4:15 CT | CBS

Last newsletter I laid out the seven nightmare triggers for this season. I now regret to inform you there's a bigger trigger waiting for Kansas today. And it points to the clear but narrow path to beating St. John's today.

It's called shot volume, and it’s a formula that measures how often a possession either produces or dies: turnovers, free throws, second chances.

Bill Self basketball was built around winning toughness and 50/50 balls. And that’s where KU has struggled since 2024.

• KU’s average before NIL: 67th percentile.

• KU’s average 2023-present: 45th percentile.

• This year: 48th percentile.

This year’s number ranks in the bottom 10 of 1-4 seeds since 2022. Zero teams in the bottom 50% have made the Final Four in four years.

The averages per round (last 4 years):

• Sweet 16 teams: 72nd percentile

• Final Four: 88th percentile

• Champion: 91st percentile

Self’s team have corrected in the Tourney before. The 2017-18 KU Final Four team ranked in the 49th percentile.

It’ll take another NBA point guard to get the win today.

Today vs. St. John's

The Johnnies have nightmare triggers and one of the best shot volume numbers in the country.

St. John's is the tournament opponent in that tier.

• They suppress shooting. 47.2% opponent eFG%.

• They score on putbacks. 1.24 PPP, the trigger in 70% of KU's losses.

• Selective rim attacks. 15.4% frequency, efficient when they get there.

• Inside-out offense. Post touch, kick, open shooter.

But there is a path to win today

St. John's three identity plays (transition, rim attacks, shots off rebounds) account for nearly half their possessions. KU is one of the best team’s in the country defending all three

Force St. John's to run real halfcourt offense past that first 10 seconds and they become a different team. Whether Self prevents the break entirely or trusts his 97th-percentile transition defense to absorb it is the coaching question of the game.

KU's Key Matchups:

• St. John's putback defense: The Johnnies rank in the 13th percentile. Their offense creates second chances and their defense gives them up. If KU crashes the glass (and that's been a problem all year) there are points available.

• Bidunga vs. Zuby Ejiofor: Zuby left Kansas wanting more playing time and found it at St. John's, averaging 16.4 points over his last 10 games at 57% shooting. He knows the system. He knows the tendencies. And he's playing the best ball of his career against the program that let him go. St. John's post defense at 0.71 PPP allowed is a different planet than Friday night.

• The depth gap: SJU rolls six players at 8-plus points. KU's bench scores 14.3 in wins, 8.8 in losses. A starter picks up two early fouls and there's no second wave.

What to Watch

• The shot clock. St John’s wants possessions shorter than 10 seconds.

• The glass, both ends. SJU putback offense at 1.24 PPP is the nightmare. SJU putback defense at the 13th percentile is the opportunity.

• Someone besides Darryn has to make a three. Peterson was the only Jayhawk to hit from deep Friday. Against this defense and a six-shot deficit, that can't happen again.

• Foul trouble. Six balanced scorers against a thin bench. Bidunga or Peterson pick up two in the first half and it's over.

Four nightmare triggers. Zero dreams. A shot volume deficit that says this shouldn't work.

And one path forward: Control the tempo, control the boards. Oh, and someone other than Darryn Peterson has to make a shot.

Prediction:

It’s either Kansas in a tight one or St. John’s runs away with it. Give me KU’s guards once this thing slows down 

Kansas 74, St. John’s 68

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