Dickinson's Revenge Game?😈 5 Keys vs. Michigan State

• 🏀 KU-MSU: 5 things to watch 

• 🏀💰 KU-MSU: Pro Money and Prediction

• 📝 Quick Links: Best things I saw from a great KU weekend

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Five Things to Watch: KU v. Michigan State

• 🏟️ Michigan State vs. No. 1 Kansas

• 📺 5:30pm CT on ESPN

• 💰 Kansas is favored by 6 points

Quick Look: Michigan State

• Dominant wins vs. bottom-250 Kenpom teams (Monmouth and Niagra).

• Watch for: SG Jaden Akins (16.5 pts and 7.5 rebs).

• Freshman PG Jeremy Fears is a pass-first guard in his first big-time college hoops game.

• A limited three-point shooting team… so far.

1) Big Ten Reunion Tour

KU’s two biggest names both have experience playing Big Ten basketball against the Spartans:

• Dickinson went 3-3, averaging 19.3 points and 7.6 rebounds.

• Storr went 2-0 last year, averaging 25 points and shooting 7-12 from three.

Dickinson will either face more traditional bigs, or the Spartans can go small, try to spread it out, and run him off the floor.

Ultimately, Dickinson should be comfortable against MSU’s bigs. And we know he’s gonna be ready to trash-talk his former B1G rival.

If Sparty goes small, KU has the wing size, depth, and scoring ability to counter-punch.

Storr (and KU’s other wings) are a difficult matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans start Nebraska-Omaha transfer Frankie Fiddler at SF. Fiddler graded out in the 14th percentile in overall defense last year, playing against Summit League competition.

The Jayhawks will have options tonight.

2) KU Rotation Watch

KU’s rotation will be a story here until it gets settled — and that probably won’t happen for a while.

KU will have to find a way to split time between Zeke Mayo, Rylan Griffen, Diggy Coit, and Storr.

Will the Jayhawks just go with the hot hand — or will a pattern start to emerge?

It’s all about who Self can trust.

3) Transition Test

Michigan State will look to push the ball offensively.

KU’s transition defense wasn’t great against UNC — but the Tar Heels have uniquely elite scoring guards.

And the Jayhawks are happy to run right back at MSU. They scored an efficient 18 points on 12 transition possessions against UNC.

Winning the transition game puts KU in a great spot to win this game.

4) Pick-and-Roll Defense

UNC exploited KU using pick-and-roll in the second half on Friday. The Tar Heels scored 31 points on 20 pick-and-roll possessions against KU.

Michigan State will try to attack KU the same way when the game slows down.

I’d expect senior guard Jaden Akins to be the main point of attack for MSU here. KU’s first job will be to cut off easy-scoring looks for Akins.

If KU does its job on Akins, then MSU’s PF Xavier Booker will probably get open three-point looks. Booker can shoot it — he went 16-48 from three last year — but is far from a proven stretch big.

He’ll get a chance to prove himself Tuesday night.

5) Gotta Board

Rebounding is a clear spot where Michigan State has an edge.

The Spartans are a good rebounding team, with a +34 rebounding advantage in their first two games (yes, against bad teams). They currently rank No. 12 in offensive rebounding on Kenpom.

KU needs to have a collective rebounding effort. Its transfer scorers (Storr, Griffen, Mayo) need to prevent Michigan State from stealing extra possessions.

I like KU’s chances if it can keep the rebounding edge close to even.

🔮 Prediction:

I’m taking KU’s experience, depth, and scoring versatility in this one. I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.

Kansas 78, Michigan State 70

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Betting Market Breakdown

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

• Opening Line: Kansas favored by 5 points.

• Current Line: Kansas favored by 6 points (10:43am CT, Friday)

  • Betting Splits: 88% of bets on Kansas, 89% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)

💰 Analysis:

The line is moving in KU’s direction, but it’s hard to see this as “pro money,” because the % of bets and % of money are near equal.

KU was briefly favored by 6.5 points early Tuesday morning, but it moved almost immediately back down to 6.

I don’t see clear pro movement yet — but it’s still good to see the line trending KU’s way.

There also might be slight pro action on under 150.5 total points scored. 70% of bets are on the over while the line has held firm.

There was so much good KU content this weekend. Here are some of the best things I saw:

🏀 Here’s the new intro video KU unveiled before the UNC game tipped off.

🏈 Watch the KU football locker room react to Devin Neal getting the game ball after becoming the Jayhawks’ all-time leading rusher.

🏈 KU football flipped a speedy WR from Nebraska in Bryson Hayes, something I tipped VIP subscribers off to last week ✅

🏀 UNC’s beat writer wrote a great story from KU-UNC. As he said, “Beware the Phog, indeed.” (Tweet | Story)

🏀 I can watch this video of Allen Fieldhouse over and over again.

🏀 More UNC fan reactions here and here to their Allen Fieldhouse experience.

🏀🏈 The Could Be Wrong podcast breaks down what we learned from KU basketball so far and what we want from KU football’s final three games.

Listen on Spotify | Apple