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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Dreams, Nightmares, and a Game to Win

Kansas vs. Cal Baptist | Friday, ~8:45 CT | CBS | San Diego

Kenpom: Kansas 74-61 \ Torvrik: Kansas 72-62 \ Miya: Kansas 75.5-60.7

Tonight, we find out if Kansas can get out of its own way. The dream path is sitting right in front of this team. But the nightmares are right there, too. They're unavoidable. And that starts tonight.

I pulled apart every win and every loss this season, trying to understand the difference between the KU team that ripped off eight straight Big 12 wins and... some other games we don’t need to talk about.

Here's what I found: seven opponent traits predict Kansas losses. I call them nightmare triggers. When facing…

• 0 triggers: KU is 13-1

• 1: KU is 5-1

• 2: KU is 3-1

• 3: KU is 2-3

• 4+: KU is 0-4

That’s 21-3 when facing two or fewer nightmare triggers. And 2-7 against 3 or more.

Cal Baptist triggers one. Maybe a second if you don’t adjust for playing in the WAC.

There are dream traits, too. Clear opponent weaknesses KU punishes, all of them tied to the paint. Cal Baptist has two of them. Flory Bidunga, all eyes on you.

Here are the nightmare triggers a March run must overcome:

• Defenses that suppress shooting (eFG% below 48.8%)

• Offensive rebounding and putback scoring

• Limiting KU’s second chances

• Offenses that get a post touch and kick it out

• Don’t rely on rim attacking

• Shutting down KU’s drive-and-kick game

• Can guard KU’s cutting action off ball

The first two are the biggest. They each show up in seven of ten Kansas losses. And they’re the obvious ones: KU struggles to beat good defense, largely because they can’t out-hustle other teams on the glass.

Cal Baptist has some of those factors built in. But not enough to be a real nightmare. At least, not like the teams waiting.

1️⃣ Tonight vs. Cal Baptist

Quickies:

• WAC champs making their first-ever Tourney appearance.

• 53rd in Kenpom adjusted defense. 266th in tempo. They defend and grind it out.

• Their defensive numbers look scary… until you look a bit deeper.

  • Built that resume against the 268th toughest offensive schedule.

  • Post-defense ranks in the 19th percentile.

  • KU likes to attack the rim, kick it out, and get out in transition. CBU is average-to-below average in defending these actions.

• The one nightmare trigger is limited second-chance opportunities, which can still come down to schedule.

• The other tricky part: 76th percentile in shot volume, meaning they get extra FGs, don’t waste possessions, and hit the glass.

  • This isn’t a nightmare trigger due to low efficiency on putbacks… but it should be. We know KU has struggled here this year.

• The name to watch: Dominique Daniels Jr. WAC Player of the Year. Fifth in the country in points per game. He attacks pick-and-roll, and KU's PnR defense is mediocre. He's the reason this game could get uncomfortable.

The matchup Kansas should attack:

• Post-ups: KU ranks 90th percentile. Cal Baptist defends them at the 19th.

• Isolation: KU 73rd percentile. Cal Baptist 27th.

The whole question tonight is shot selection and restraint. Post-ups and smart isolation opportunities (Darryn Peterson). When KU can’t create in the post or with motion and switching, it turns to a more predictable ball screen offense.

I’d also expect some secondary scoring looks from Tre White and/or Bryson Tiller against a team that’ll try to limit threes and guard the rim.

What to Watch Tonight

• Rim FG attempts early. Bidunga averages 5.5 points in the first half of KU’s losses. As a whole, KU’s FG attempts at the rim crater in losses.

• The assist rate. KU’s assist rate stayed low in most of its Big 12 losses. You’ll feel it early if KU struggles to move the ball.

• The glass. Cal Baptist is 6th nationally with 14 offensive boards per game. It’s the one area where Cal Baptist could trip the wire.

• Pick-and-roll defense: KU is average at defending scoring ball handlers on the pick-and-roll. If Daniels starts cooking in ball screens with bad switching from KU, the pace will slow and the game can tighten. Contain Daniels here and this thing is over.

Prediction 🔮

KU has a lot of different paths to getting this thing done: transition offense, defensive rebounding, and getting the ball inside can all make it happen.

The one fear for KU is giving up too many extra possessions on the glass. That’s the biggest factor that would make this thing tight.

The Jayhawks have avoided the obvious paths at times this year. If they can get out of their own way, the dream can begin.

Final: Kansas 78, Cal Baptist 63

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🏀 Some great KU hoops profiles lately.

• KU student journalist Jack Ritter on Melvin Council’s journey.

• CJ Moore’s in-depth story on Darryn Peterson and full-body cramp scare.

• The Kansas City Star on Peterson overcoming the ‘season from hell.’

🏀 Melvin Council continues to be hilarious

🏀 There’s a lot of Allen Fieldhouse love in Darryn Peterson’s new adidas commercial. He wants you to let the work speak.