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From March to the Portal 🔍 5 Questions KU Hoops Must Answer
Behind what might be KU's most reliable predictor of tournament success
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🏀 5 questions KU hoops must answer
💰KU-Arizona: Quick breakdown
📝 Quick Links: KU Bracketology update
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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

From March to the Portal: 5 Questions KU Hoops Must Answer 🔍
1) Will the ‘Core Three’ Finally Make it Work?
Bill Self admitted this preseason that Kansas would be better if Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams, and Hunter Dickinson each played fewer than 30 minutes per game. Reality didn’t match this plan.
Against Quad 1 Competition:
Harris averages 34.4 minutes
Dickinson 32 minutes
Adams 31 minutes
(Excludes injury/ejection games. You can figure out who got ejected)
The numbers tell a concerning story: This trio ranks in just the 49th percentile offensively when playing together, but jumps to the 80th percentile or better when either Harris or Adams sits and Dickinson plays.
With KU likely committed to these three through March, they'll need to find ways to maximize this combination's effectiveness.
One of those ways…
2) Can Kansas Find Its Energy?
The most striking statistical differences between KU's wins and losses appear in mostly effort-based categories:
Shot Selection:
Big 12 Wins: Mid-range attempts (57th percentile) converted at an elite rate (99th percentile)
Big 12 Losses: More mid-range shots (80th percentile) at dramatically worse efficiency (18th percentile)
Cutting & Movement:
Power 5 Wins: Perimeter cutting offense ranks 68th percentile
Power 5 Losses: Same plays plummet to bottom 1st percentile
Transition Opportunities:
Wins: Top-third nationally in fast-break frequency
Losses: Frequency drops well below the national average
3) How much will the rebounding matchup matter?
Offensive rebounding might be the single most reliable predictor of KU's tournament success this year.
The Jayhawks are 9-1 in conference play when their offensive rebounding rate hits 25% or higher. Their only loss with strong rebounding came against Texas Tech by just 5 points.
The contrast is stark:
In Big 12 wins: KU ranks 10th nationally in offensive rebounding rate
In Big 12 losses: KU plummets to 349th in offensive rebounding rate
Which leads me to…
4) How will Kansas handle adversity?
This remains the season-long question.
All the statistics point to a team whose senior leaders have struggled to maintain intensity when facing challenges. KU's tournament fate likely depends on:
Building early momentum
Using that momentum to sustain energy
Finding favorable matchups that allow them to dominate the glass
Despite the frustrating season, Torvik still ranks KU as the 20th best team since January 1st, suggesting their ceiling remains high.
The key moment will come when they inevitably face adversity in the opening weekend. Their response will define how the team is remembered.
5) Can Kansas Correct Course in the Portal?
I’m trying to avoid writing too specifically about the transfer portal right now while guys are still on their respective teams. Anything else would suggest tampering.
But it's clear KU needs a different approach to the portal this offseason.
I'm Hearing the staff recognizes they overemphasized shooting at the expense of players who can beat defenders off the dribble and put stress on the defense.
KU’s staff has focused too much on shooting and not enough on bringing in players who can get their shoulders past the defense.
The plan appears to be building around Darryn Peterson and (hopefully) Flory Bidunga with:
Guards who can drive and create
Rim protectors
Stretch fours
Potential European prospects 👀
Early intel suggests exciting possibilities - though last year's optimism serves as a cautionary tale.
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Quick Look at KU-Arizona
🏟️ No. 24 Arizona @ Kansas
📺 3:30pm CT on ESPN
Opening Line: Kansas as a 2.5 point favorite.
Current Line: Kansas as a 2.5 point favorite (6:25pm CT, Friday)
Betting Splits: 72% of bets on Kansas, 96% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)
To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.
💰 Analysis: Early Money on KU
It’s really early to look too much into the betting splits. But the early money has come in KU’s favor.
At this rate, I’m starting to think KU ends up as a 3 or 3.5 point-favorite tomorrow.
🔮 Prediction: I’m not picking against Kansas on senior night. These are the rules.
KU 78, Arizona 70.

🏀 KU is doing a great job with its Senior Night content. You can see it all here on KU’s Instagram. The videos are great and still coming out.
🏀 Latest Bracketology Updates. We’ll keep watching as we get closer to Selection Sunday. Staying off the 8 seed line would be huge
ESPN projects KU as an 8 seed
CBS has KU as a 7 seed
Sporting News slots KU as a 7 seed
USA Today puts KU as an 8 seed
🏀 And a reminder that you can get 20% off with promo code HEARINGS25 and 10% off with HEARINGS10 on the new Homefield Apparel KU launch.
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