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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.
Note: I’ve got more KU football analysis to come this week. I’m currently digging into KU’s play calling and run game for tomorrow’s newsletter.
But the place to start with KU is Jalon Daniels.
The Daniels Questions:
KU’s QB played his worst game as a Jayhawk in Saturday’s loss to Illinois. The fall camp optimism and positive expectations for Daniels ended abruptly.
That excitement has been replaced with big questions for KU going forward.
Just how bad was Daniels?
You saw the obvious (three interceptions), so I went deeper to try and see if it was as bas as it appeared.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is an advanced metric from collegefootballdata.com that measures how each play shifts a team’s scoring odds.
A positive PPA means the team is more likely to score and negative PPA means its less likely to score.
When Daniels passed or ran on 1st down, it actually tipped the scales in favor of Illinois scoring next.
(Note: Devin Neal had just five first-down rushes. More to come on that tomorrow).
Daniels’ Average PPA | 1st Down | 2nd Down | 3rd Down |
---|---|---|---|
Saturday vs. Illinois | -0.054 | 0.42 | 0.824 |
Last year vs. Illinois | 1.053 | 0.424 | 0.145 |
Last year vs. Nevada | 0.911 | 0.258 | 1.549 |
Last year vs. BYU | 0.353 | -0.1 | 1.328 |
TL;DR: It was about as bad as it looked. Daniels had an uncharacteristically bad game.
And KU kept putting itself in a difficult spot with Daniels on first down.
Was Daniels just rusty?
Daniels hadn’t played against a quality opponent in a year. He missed open throws and made the wrong reads on multiple plays.
While unexpected, it’s not entirely inexplicable, right? Daniels was playing on the road, against a B1G team, with a new offensive coordinator… and things just didn’t go his way.
I have no idea if playing quarterback is like riding a bike, and I wouldn’t want my first time back on wheels to be off roading down a mountain.
If Daniels was just rusty, he needs to shake it off soon. Maybe you can get away with mistakes against UNLV on Saturday, but the margin for error is closing.
Is Daniels healthy?
Daniels’ arm, particularly late against Illinois, didn’t appear to have the juice he’s shown before. I mean, could he have thrown a Hail Mary from midfield if needed? And was that ever a question before?
I don’t blame you for watching that game and wondering if something is still wrong.
Or did Daniels get hurt Early?
Daniels said the wind got knocked out of him on the first hit he took. Would KU let on if something worse happened on the first drive?
And…
Then why all the called QB runs?
If Daniels’ health was a concern, then why did he run the ball 10 times vs. Illinois? It doesn’t add up.
Did Daniels change his mechanics?
If Daniels was 100% or close to it throughout the game… you have to wonder if his previous back injuries forced him to change the way he throws.
New throwing mechanics would explain what seemed like a lack of arm strength. And if that is the case, then KU needs to change its offense going forward.
My Take:
Until I Hear otherwise, I’m just assuming it was a bad, rusty game from Daniels. And once things started going south, he pressed, which led to bad decision making.
While Daniels’ arm didn’t look great, it was the wrong reads, progressions, and decisions that ultimately led to KU’s downfall.
It’s the most explicable answer to all the questions. But I’m still gonna dig to see what I Hear. I’ll keep you posted.
What do you think happened?
Do you think Jalon was just rusty? |
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🏈 KU football announced a blackout for the UNLV game with a preview of the jerseys here. The first 10,000 fans in attendance will receive these shirts as well.
And here are two good postgame videos from Lance Leipold’s press conference after the Illinois game. He was hot after the loss.
Kansas HC Lance Leipold on the message to his team
"We're going to see what we're made of. We got 10 more games to play. This is a non-conference game"
"If everyone thinks our season and our goals are out the window, you're sadly mistaken"
— Landon Reinhardt (@landonian87)
2:47 AM • Sep 8, 2024
Kansas HC Lance Leipold was asked by @HenryGreenstein about the pass interference flag that was picked up
"You're trying to get me fined aren't ya? I'll split the money with you if you let me say it...you in for $5,000?"
— Landon Reinhardt (@landonian87)
4:06 AM • Sep 8, 2024
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