Jeff Grimes and Jalon Daniels

• 🚨 The KU football blame game 

• 📝 Quick Links: Wheat lights complete at new stadium

• 🔒🔮 A KU hoops recruiting prediction

Support The Hearings by sending this to KU friends and fam. Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here.

EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

The Kansas Football Blame Game

The current Kansas football situation probably isn’t as bad as it looks. But that doesn’t mean it’s an easy fix, either.

I’ve Heard the staff is irritated with Daniels’ play — and the players are frustrated with Jeff Grimes’ play calling, which isn’t a great combination. Note: I’d probably be more concerned if no one was frustrated about all of this.

Everyone seems to be looking for someone to blame, which is what sports fans do after not meeting expectations.

So let’s take a look at deeper look at the two people catching the blame:

1) On Jalon Daniels

• One source I spoke to estimated Daniels will earn around $1M this year in NIL.

  • I think KU’s staff did pretty much everything possible to keep Daniels in Lawrence this year.

    • It was the kind of effort that didn’t exactly create a ton of goodwill from the coaching staff.

  • Still, it’s not that unusual for a star QB to maximize his value. Welcome to college football in 2024. KU — its fans and coaches alike — are better off getting used to it.

• Of 134 teams, there have been just seven QBs worse than Daniels, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades this year (minimum 100 snaps).

  • His grade is the third-worst among the Power Conference QBs.

  • Kansas ranks No. 95 in the country on expected points added per pass play.

    • The passing game is costing KU wins. However…

• Against UNLV, Daniels looked like the player we all remembered for one half.

• Maybe we underestimated the injury itself — which KU’s staff hasn’t been exactly forthright about.

  • One possibly similar instance worth mentioning is NFL QB Carson Wentz, who suffered a fracture in his back late in the 2018 season.

    • Wentz returned in 2019 and was criticized by his teammates for ‘trying to do too much’ early in the year.

      • The Eagles were 3-3 when Wentz was called out and the QB was tied for an NFL-high three interceptions on passes of 15+ yards.

        • Wentz turned it around, finishing the year with 27 TDs and 7 total INTs.

• Or, maybe we’re underestimated the rust that comes with a college QB missing a year due to injury.

• Either way, there’s a clear and substantial regression so far this year with Daniels.

• Take a look at the two tweets below.

  • The first one suggests KU’s offense has been pretty good without Daniels’ mistakes.

  • Then watch the video below — who do you blame for those passes?

    • And if the offense has been OK without those passes… then who do you point fingers at?

2) On Jeff Grimes

• I’m Hearing (and shared with VIP on Monday) that Grimes will move to coach from the Booth, trading locations with QB coach Jim Zebrowski who will move to the field.

  • In theory, the move should make Daniels more comfortable and allow Grimes a better vantage point of the game.

• It’s not the first time Grimes has moved from the field to the booth. He made the same move in his first season as BYU’s offensive coordinator (2018).

  • From the field: BYU went 4-4, averaging 22.6 points per game.

  • From the booth: BYU went 3-2, averaging 34.4 points per game.

    • The change didn’t last long, Grimes moved back to the field on Oct 19., the following season when BYU started 2-4 (though it’s 2 wins were @Tennessee and vs. USC).

      • BYU won its next 5 games.

• Grimes has been an unpopular figure for KU. He’s had odd press conference moments both this week and last.

• The offense has substantially regressed early this year — especially in running pass plays that help create points.

• And Grimes’ success at Baylor wasn’t because of the passing game.

  • His passing numbers consistently lagged behind his offense’s passing output.

• But how much of this is Grimes’ fault?

• There’s almost definitely a compound effect taking place right now.

  • KU’s quarterback suffered what appeared to be a major injury and missed a year because of it.

  • The Jayhawks are also replacing three of its best offensive coaches (coordinator, OL, and analyst). There’s going to be a transition period when something like that happens — unless you’ve recruited like you’re Alabama.

    • And Kansas hasn’t — which probably has something to do with all of this, too.

• Lance Leipold teams can normally succeed despite poor recruiting rankings. They’re a staff that thrives on development.

• But it’s probably pretty hard to succeed when you combine poor recruiting with staff turnover AND a rusty quarterback.

  • And yet… the numbers still aren’t that bad.

3) On The Numbers

• Kansas is still the No. 30 team in the country, according to ESPN’s SP+ Rankings. You can see them here.

  • SP+ is a predictive and forward-facing metric. If you’re strong and have an unlucky loss, you don’t get punished much.

    • It ranks KU’s offense as No. 26, surprisingly — and its defense at No. 49.

  • When analyzing only the numbers from KU’s loss vs. UNLV, Collegefootballdata.com gives KU a postgame win expectancy of 99%.

    • The coaching, the quarterback play, all of it led to a 99% chance to win. But the coaching and QB play is also the reason KU lost.

• KU is so, so close to having an entirely different story this year.

  • The numbers don’t call for big changes. At least, not yet.

Enjoyed this Hearing?

The writing, editing, and data analysis took me five hours.

And you can help me in a few seconds.

Please help spread the word by telling your friends about KUHearings. Sharing the link and suggesting they subscribe goes a long way! Thank you in advance.

🏈 Take a look at this! The final wheat lights for Phase 1 of the new football stadium has been installed. Watch the video here.

🏀 KU hoops finally announced its exhibition game against Arkansas on Oct. 25. This confirms a Hearing I first shared on July 19 with VIP subscribers.✅

🏈 Kansas announced its covering the fees for single-game tickets at Arrowhead Stadium this season for a limited time. You can see the announcement here. And you can purchase tickets here.

VIP: Hoops Recruiting Prediction

🔮🔮🔮