Where KU Can Exploit Arkansas

• 🏀 Preview & Prediction for KU-Ark

• 💰KU-Ark: Pro Money breakdown

• 📝 Quick Links: Big dunks and Bill Self press conference

Support The Hearings by sending this to KU friends and fam. Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here.

EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

What to Watch for KU vs. Arkansas

• 🏀 Rd of 64: No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas

• 📺 6:10pm CT on CBS

• 💰 Kansas is a 5.5-point favorite (pro money analysis below)

Quick Look: Arkansas

• Won 5 of their last 7 games. Lost to Ole Miss in SEC Tourney Rd 2.

• Ranked No. 40 on Kenpom | No. 73 offense | No. 18 defense

• Leading scorer and rebounder Adou Thiero is OUT (had missed the previous 6)

  • Arkansas’ offense actually improved without Thiero, but..

  • Their defense was significantly worse (No. 18—>No. 74, per Torvrik)

• Despite the injury, Arkansas uses three players over 6’10” to throw at Dickinson and protect the rim.

• Arkansas traits:

  • Likes to play fast

  • Doesn’t shoot (or make) a ton of threes 🤞

  • Blocks a ton of shots

  • Gets to the free throw line a good amount

  • Has struggled on the offensive glass

Matchup Edge: KU vs. Arkansas

The Post Game Advantage

The most glaring mismatch in this game is Kansas' post-up offense against Arkansas' post defense:

• Kansas operates in the post with high frequency (71st percentile) and efficiency (75th percentile)

• Arkansas ranks just 21st percentile in defending post-ups, specifically when a big man backs the defender down.

  • The Razborbacks are a good shot blocking team, but they’ve struggled when things slow down and a big man gets the ball with his back to the basket.

This creates a clear opportunity for Hunter Dickinson (and Flory Bidunga) to establish position early and often.

KU’s guards will have to handle Arkansas’ pressure and pace to get comfortable and work the ball inside.

From there, the Jayhawks should have an edge.

Ball Screens: Dajuan’s Chance and Arkansas’ Pick-and-Pop Threes

Both teams rely heavily on ball screen actions, but in different ways:

• There’s an opportunity for Dajuan Harris to make a big difference without needing to score (which is needed).

  • Arkansas is a good defensive team, but has struggled against patient offenses, specifically…

    • Ark ranks in the bottom 17 percentile against ball screen pass-outs — plays where the ball handler passes to a third player not involved in the pick-and-roll.

    • KU runs this action frequently (top 73rd percentile) and scores efficiently with it.

      • Look for Dajuan to get downhill off a screen and kick it out to an open player.

• BUT, there’s a familiar concern on the defensive side for KU.

  • Arkansas' pick-and-roll offense is good (74th percentile when passing to the roll man). KU's defense against the roll man is below average (40th percentile).

  • Yes, Gonzaga picked KU apart doing this last year.. but KU has improved some and Ark isn’t Gonzaga (please don’t make me regret typing that).

• One big challenge for KU here: Arkansas 7-footer Zvonimir Ivisic is really good in pick-and-pop situations. The big man is shooting an impressive 47% (16/34) from three here, per synergy.

  • Kansas will need to be ready for the three ball when Ivisic is involved in ball screens.

Control the Shot Clock

Arkansas' transition game represents their most dangerous weapon — and reveals their biggest weakness.

• The Razorbacks are elite in transition (94th percentile efficiency)

  • They push pace frequently (77th percentile)

  • KU's transition defense is above average (60th percentile)

• Arkansas ranks in the bottom 3rd percentile in offense when possessions last between 20-30 seconds.

  • The longer the possession, the more Arkansas struggles to get a good shot.

Forcing Jump Shots

The numbers show a clear path to limiting Arkansas offensively:

• Arkansas ranks in the bottom 16th percentile in mid-range shooting

• But they convert at the rim at an elite level (84th percentile)

  • MAKE THEM SETTLE FOR JUMPERS.

Overall Keys for Kansas

1. Feed Dickinson early and often - Arkansas has no answer for KU's post game

2. Defend the pick-and-pop - Special attention needed when Ivisic is the screener

3. Limit transition opportunities - Make Arkansas play against a set defense

4. Force mid-range shots - Keep Arkansas away from the rim without fouling

5. Move the ball side-to-side - Patient ball movement and ball screens will expose Arkansas' defensive mistakes

6. REBOUND - KU can 100% win this game on the offensive glass. Arkansas is without its top rebounder. Don’t wait for good things to happen, go make them happen and KU will win.

🔮 Prediction:

First, these are two wildly unpredictable teams, but the matchup generally favors the Jayhawks.

KU has multiple pathways to victory: through the post, by slowing the game down down, or by dominating the offensive glass against an Arkansas team missing its leading rebounder.

Arkansas will try to turn this into a fast-paced game, but if KU can control tempo, limit its turnovers, and force the Razorbacks to execute in the half court, the Jayhawks should keep dancin.

I like the Jayhawks in an ugly one.

Prediction: Kansas 72, Arkansas 65

AND…

Help Spread the Word:

Tell your friends about today’s Hearing by copy and pasting this link into your group texts or on social media.

What the Betting Market Says about KU-Arkansas

• Opening Line: Kansas favored by 4.5 points

• Current Line: Kansas favored by 5.5 points (8:41am CT, Friday)

• Betting Splits: 

  • 24% of bets on Kansas, 30% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)

  • 30% of bets on Kansas, 65% of money on Kansas at Circa Sports (via VSiN)

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

💰 Analysis: Good Sign for KU, but Arkansas Injury Clouds Things

The betting splits suggests that more casual bettors are backing Arkansas, and some larger bets (pro money) are coming in on Kansas. The line moving KU’s direction with less than 50% of bets is generally a good sign.

That said, Arkansas' injury situation (Adou Thiero is OUT) could’ve contributed to the line movement as well.

It’s hard to say there’s clear pro action on KU because of the injuries. Either way, I’d rather have KU’s betting splits than Arkansas’.

Help Spread the Word:

If you enjoyed this breakdown, please share this link with other KU fans.

We are now up to 16,277 Jayhawks who subscribe! I’m planning a big giveaway at 16,300!

🏀 Long-Distance Jayhawks: Here’s a map of every KU watch party so you can watch today’s game with Jayhawks around the country.

🏀 Want a glimpse toward the future (hopefully)? Watch Rakease Passmore throw it down in KU’s open practice.

🏀 My podcast ‘Could be Wrong’ was live on YouTube yesterday. You can also listen on Spotify and Apple.

🏀 Watch Bill Self, KJ Adams, and Dajuan Harris’ press conference from Providence yesterday 👇