KU's Seeding Could Double Their Sweet 16 Chances

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This is different.

Selection Sunday is a few days away, and we’re not trying to dissect which 15 seed we want to avoid or figuring out travel for one of the regionals. Instead, KU is still fighting for the kind of seeding that can drastically improve its odds to make it out of the opening weekend.

The Big 12 Tournament matters in a different way than we’ve seen in the last 21 years with Bill Self.

Current Projections: Anywhere from 6 seed to 8 seed

Currently, Kansas sits as a 7 seed according to Bracket Matrix, which averages projections across the major Bracket projections.

Some of the more recent projections have moved Kansas up to a 6 seed, and it’s not impossible that KU lands on the 5 line with three wins in Kansas City. At the same time, a bad Big 12 Tourney could quickly knock KU down to an 8 seed.

Let's look at what the major bracketologists are forecasting:

ESPN (Joe Lunardi):

• KU as a 6 seed facing the winner of Indiana-Oklahoma

• Potential second-round matchup: #3 St. John's

• Region's #2 seed: Alabama

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm):

• KU as a 7 seed facing Indiana

• Potential second-round matchup: #2 Tennessee

Field of 68 (Jeff Goodman):

• KU as a 6 seed facing Drake

• Potential second-round matchup: #3 Texas A&M

• Region's #2 seed: St. John's

And here’s what some of the lesser-known but historically top-ranking bracket projections forecast for KU:

YAGO Brackets:

• KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)

• Region's #2 seed: St. John's

Glazewski-tology:

• KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)

• Region's #2 seed: Alabama

1-3-1 Sports:

• KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Arkansas, WVU, Baylor)

• Region's #2 seed: Alabama

What History Says about KU’s Chances per Seed

Here's how teams with KU's projected seeds have performed historically, according to Data Science and Sports Analytics Professor Sheldon H. Jacobson (University of Illinois):

5 Seed Historical Performance:

• Round of 32: 64.7%

• Sweet Sixteen: 34.6%

• Elite Eight: 7.7%

• Final Four: 5.8%

• Championship Game: 5.1%

• National Champion: 0%

6 Seed Historical Performance:

• Round of 32: 60.9%

• Sweet Sixteen: 28.8%

• Elite Eight: 10.9%

• Final Four: 1.9%

• Championship Game: 2.6%

• National Champion: 2.6%

7 Seed Historical Performance:

• Round of 32: 61.5%

• Sweet Sixteen: 18.6%

• Elite Eight: 6.4%

• Final Four: 1.9%

• Championship Game: 1.3%

• National Champion: 2.6%

8 Seed Historical Performance:

• Round of 32: 48.1%

• Sweet Sixteen: 10.3%

The difference between seeds is significant when it comes to reaching the Sweet Sixteen (34.6 % vs. 28.8% vs. 18.6% vs. 10.3%).

What it Means for KU

It’s going to be a difficult path for the Jayhawks regardless of where they land. They’ll probably face a strong 2 or 3 seed in the second round.

The good news: KU has the tournament experience and coaching to outperform these odds. The concerning news: KU’s struggled to knock off the kind of high-level competition they’re likely to face early in the Tourney.

Given the potential opponents (Drake, Indiana, Oklahoma, Alabama, St. Johns, Tennessee), KU’s chances will be all about the matchups. And we’ll get into that before and after Selection Sunday.

For now, a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney will provide a significantly better chance to make it to the second weekend.

And a little bracket luck will go a long, long way.

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🏀 See the Conference Tourney brackets for the Big 12, SEC, B1G, and ACC right here.

🏀 You can watch Bill Self’s press conference previewing the Big 12 Tourney here (from Monday).

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• Dajuan Harris

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• Dillon Wilhite

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