Predicting KU-Iowa State šŸ«£

Do the Jayhawks have the talent?

  • šŸ”’šŸ€ Hearing: KUā€™s team chemistry šŸ‘‚

  • šŸ€ Analysis and prediction: KU-Iowa State

  • šŸ€ Writer X: Do the Jayhawks have the talent?

  • šŸ“ Quick Links: Ochai to Gradey Dick one-handed dunk

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

VIP Hearings on KUā€™s Team ChemistryšŸ‘‚šŸ€

A lot of you have asked me if thereā€™s behind-the-scenes drama, or some kind of team chemistry issue.

Zeke Mayo liking this Instagram post didnā€™t exactly help, either.

Iā€™ve asked around. This is what Iā€™m Hearing:

šŸ’°Betting Market: No. 3 Iowa State @ No. 11 Kansas 

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

  • šŸŸļø Allen Fieldhouse

  • šŸ“ŗ 8:00pm CT on ESPN

  • Opening line: Kansas as a 3 point favorite

  • Current Line: Kansas as a 3 point favorite (9:57am CT)

  • Betting Splits: 

    • DraftKings: 49% of bets on Kansas, 53% of money on Kansas (via VSiN)

šŸ’° Analysis: Thereā€™s been no significant line movement or ā€˜Pro Actionā€™ coming in on either team.

Kansas has bounced back-and-forth between a 2.5/3 point favorite this morning on DraftKings ā€” neither number has held firm.

In the absence of Pro Money, thereā€™s a wild streak on the line worth noting: Self is 37-0 on Big Monday at Allen Fieldhouse. I did some additional betting research for Bill Self on Big Monday:

  • In total: Self is 47-33-2 (58.8%) against the betting spread.

  • At home: Self is 26-18-2 (59.1%) against the spread.

  • Self is 5-2 vs. Iowa State against the spread (home or away) on Mondays.

And hereā€™s a crazy one: Tonight marks the smallest home Big Monday spread (-3) in the Bill Self era. KU had never been less than a 4.5-point favorite at Allen Fieldhouse on Big Monday.

šŸ”® Prediction:

KUā€™s first game against Iowa State was much closer the 17-point loss appears. The Jayhawks were trailing by three with 13 minutes left and by five with five minutes left.

Iowa Stateā€™s ā€œno middleā€ defense will try to force KU baseline, and I actually like that for the Jayhawks. See the Houston clip below.

Iowa State has been vulnerable vs. KUā€™s short roll with Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams, too.

I think the Jayhawks make some corner threes at home, opening up the offense for KUā€™s front court.

Give me the Jayhawks. May Phog have Mercy on our souls.

Kansas 77, Iowa State 69

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Writer X: Does KU Have the Talent?

Iā€™ve brought in a special and prominent guest writer on the condition of anonymity. College Basketball ā€˜Writer Xā€™ has covered college hoops for most of this century. He also has takes.

By Writer X

When Kansas was preseason No. 1 back in October, I was pretty skeptical. The core ā€” Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson ā€” was the same, and I didn't expect much improvement out of those players. 

Nearly four months later, I was right ā€” and wrong. Kansas is underwhelming in talent ā€” compared to most Bill Self teams ā€” but even worse in the intangibles (toughness and execution). 

There's plenty of blame to go around. I'd start with Bill Self. We don't need to go overboard with the criticism. But he put the team together.

In the interest of fairness, however, I decided to take stock of my preseason thoughts (in quotes below). Here we go:

ā€œThat Kansas ended up No. 1 in the preseason AP poll speaks to two things: The respect Bill Self commands as the current dean of college coaches (even after Dan Hurley matched him in NCAA titles). Also, the lack of imagination and general group think from voters.ā€

Yes. Nodding. 

ā€œI donā€™t want to be too contrarian, but I think thereā€™s a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Kansas as the best team in the country. Letā€™s go through them: 

ā€” Has DaJuan Harris improved across the last two seasons? Heā€™ll be 24 in December but heā€™s still never shown the ability to dominate younger competition through sheer physicality or experience. Until shown otherwise, I tend to think he is what he is.ā€

My biggest issue with Harris is not his talent level or his production. He's still a good player. But for a player whose calling card is his calm and steady demeanor (I think Self once called him a "security blanket), he really disappears in big moments. His inability to make a play on his own is magnified. He doesn't look all that different than he did three years ago. That's a developmental problem on the whole program. 

ā€œWhereā€™s the NBA talent? Almost every NCAA champion has at least one or two first-round picks in the middle of the action, including the 2021-22 Kansas team. (Somewhere Jeff Goodman is still convincing himself of his own narrative that that Kansas team didnā€™t have the ā€œusualā€ Bill Self talent.)ā€

In full disclosure: I once wondered whether KJ Adams could carve out an NBA role as a positionless defensive maniac who could guard three or four positions. Yeah, I don't think so. 

ā€œI saw The Athleticā€™s Sam Vecenie recently released a mock draft. It included zero Kansas players in the first round and just one in the second ā€” AJ Storr at No. 58. We can disagree about one personā€™s opinion. But which player on this KU team is in the NBA in five years? Flory Bidunga? 

Rakease Passmore? The latter is probably not even in the rotation this year.ā€

I do love Flory. Maybe this is about expectations. But for a raw big man, he has good feel and footwork. He's had some coast-to-coast drives after steals that have surprised me. 

ā€œSpeaking of AJ Storr, Bill Self has already started an interesting messaging campaign with him. Storr is a bucket getter, which is sorely needed. Kansas was terrible at the end of the shot clock last year. But I think heā€™s going to drive Self crazy because he wonā€™t defend or rebound like he wants. Self will need to work his magic with him. ā€œ

Does Kansas need to audit its portal process? 

ā€œTo me, the biggest keys are Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen. They have to fill it up from three. And Mayo has to play like a borderline pro. It's a big jump in competition for him. I don't want to say he can't. But I'll wait for some evidence first. Otherwise, I just donā€™t see how KU is all that much different than last year.ā€

 

Mayo has been pretty good. Certainly a "pro," though can he stick in the league? Probably not. 

ā€œHunter Dickinson is what he is. Heā€™ll give you 20 and give up 10. I love KJ Adams. Iā€™d love to see KJ on a team where the point guard isn't also close to a zero on offense. But with Storr and Griffen in the picture, Iā€™d love to see Adams get some time at the 5 with Harris, Mayo, Storr and Griffen on the wing.ā€

I don't think I appreciated what a bad fit KJ Adams would be on this team. It was easy to point out the lack of shooting last year. But in reality, most of the lack of shooting was due to playing Harris, Adams and Dickinson at the same time. If you put Adams in the Mark Vital role on the Baylor team that won the NCAA title, he'd probably look much, much better. But Vital also rebounded better, so it's not all fit.

ā€œKansas should be vastly improved. But they also were pretty bad last year, all things considered. I know the injuries didn't help. But ... it's a lot on the portal guys because the returners all have flaws that aren't going away.

Their depth is much better. All the portal guys are intriguing in their own way. I have no idea what to think about Bidunga? How many minutes does he get with Hunter and KJ in front of him? How ready is he to contribute? Maybe thereā€™s not a better alternative for preseason No. 1. But KenPom has at least five.ā€

The portal additions have been a mixed bag. Some good, some bad. But it's not all portal. Harris and Adams are program players. But the talent is limited. There's an old saying in sports: Your best guys need to be your best guys. Just a theory from afar: But I think the fact Harris and Adams touted by the head coach as front men isn't great for chemistry.

Considering all the bad, it's easy to forget KU is still a top 10 team at KenPom. But I think they're 50-50 to get out of the first weekend and they need some gifts from the bracket gods to go deeper than the Sweet 16.  

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šŸ€ Watch Ochai Agbaji make a hustle play leading to a one-handed Gradey Dick slam.

šŸˆ Check out this video from the KU Football offices looking out toward the new stadium. The thread has videos of the concourses, too.

šŸ€šŸŽ™ļø A new ā€˜Could Be Wrongā€™ show is out talking about the blame being sent Bill Selfā€™s way. You can watch it here or listen on Spotify and Apple.

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