Prediction & Keys🔮 KU-Arizona

• 🏀 KU-Arizona preview and prediction

• 🔮 KU bracketology update

• 📝 Quick Links: Marcus Garrett’s emotional video, KU postgame

Support The Hearings by sending this to KU friends and fam. Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here.

EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Kansas-Arizona Preview & Prediction

• 🏟️ Kansas-Arizona, 8:30pm CT

• 📺 ESPN

• 📊 Torvik projects Kansas as a 1 point underdog

  • Opening Line: Kansas as a 1 point underdog

  • Current Line: Kansas as a 2.5 point underdog (3:45pm CT)

    • Betting Splits: 38% of bets on Kansas, 30% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)

💰 Analysis: Pro Money on Arizona

The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

This line opened at 1 or 1.5 depending on which book you track. It reached 2-points overnight and then ticked up to 2.5 around 7am this morning.

It looks like pro bettors were quick to jump on Arizona after KU’s late-night overtime win. I get it. Tired legs + a quick rematch are all easy Arizona indicators.

It appears pro money is against the Jayhawks.

Two Wild Trends

Two fascinating statistics set the stage for this rematch:

• In Power Conference tournaments since 2005, teams coming off a win by 5 points or fewer are just 235-306 (43.4%) in their next game.

  • Bill Self's Jayhawks, however, defy this trend with a remarkable 7-1 (87.5%) record in these situations.

• Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd has been nearly perfect in same-season revenge games, going 12-1 when facing a team that previously beat him. So that’s lovely.

First Meeting Breakdown: KU's 83-76 Win

Kansas controlled the first matchup by dictating tempo and neutralizing Arizona's strengths:

Tempo Control

• The Jayhawks held possession for a season-high 56.2% of the game

  • KU's average possession lasted 18 seconds (tied for season high)

• This patient approach frustrated an Arizona team that thrives on pace

  • This season: Arizona's transition offense ranks in the 84th percentile (frequency) and 97th percentile (scoring efficiency) this season

    • Against KU: Wildcats fell to the 2.5th percentile in transition frequency

    • Arizona tied its season low with just 5 points off turnovers

Interior Dominance

• Kansas attacked Arizona inside without facing consistent double-teams until late.

  • KU's post-up, big man cut & roll, and inside-out offense all ranked in the 90th percentile for scoring efficiency (vs. D1 avg).

  • KU had a +9 advantage in 2nd-chance points.

    • Zona’s only scored five 2nd-chance pts, its fourth-lowest mark this season.

KU’s Weak Spot

• Arizona's perimeter players found success attacking the rim, elevating from an above-average rim attack team to an elite one against KU

• KU’s bench scored just 2 points vs. its conference-play average of 18.4.

  • The starting 5 was +15 in 21 minutes. Every other combination was -8.

Keys to the Rematch

• Manage Fatigue

  • Dajuan, Zeke, KJ, and Hunter all logged 36+ minutes in yesterday's tight win

  • KU's bench must provide quality minutes today (unlike the first meeting)

  Control the Tempo - Again

  • Kansas needs to maintain its controlled offensive approach

  • Arizona will almost certainly get more transition looks, but KU needs to limit the damage here.

  Anticipate Adjustments

  • I figure Arizona will double-team Dickinson earlier in the game.

  • KU's perimeter players must be decisive when the double comes — no hesitation on open looks. Let it fly or attack.

  Defensive Focus

  • KU needs to stay in front of Arizona's guards and limit ability to create.

  • The Wildcats aren’t a great three-point shooting team. KU can focus on defending the paint to start and adjust if needed.

🔮 Prediction:

KU’s above-average post play AND Arizona’s inability to get anything in transition in the first game will be hard to replicate.

At the same time, KU’s bench was nonexistent… plus AJ Storr suddenly maybe hopefully please pretty please becomes a legitimate scoring threat. (Also, Shakeel Moore is expected to be available for the first time in a month).

There are two quality post attacks that’ll go back-and-forth here. The key, in my view, will be KU’s guard play on both ends of the court.

The guards need to do a better job defending the rim attack.. and must convert if Arizona doubles Dickinson.

KU has clear, reasonable paths to winning this game. But I think Arizona might have more.

🔮👉 Arizona 79, Kansas 71

Help Spread the Word:

This newsletter took me three hours to research, write, and edit.

It can take you three seconds to help support my work 🙂 

You can tell Jayhawks you know about the KUHearings newsletter by copy and pasting this link and/or consider upgrading to VIP for exclusive scoops.

Current Projections Update

Let's look at what the major bracketologists are forecasting. The previous update was on Tuesday, March 11.

ESPN (Joe Lunardi):

• Today: 6 seed facing the winner of SDSU-Indiana

• Previous: 6 seed facing the winner of Indiana-Oklahoma

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm):

• Today: KU as a 7 seed facing Arkansas

• Previous: KU as a 7 seed facing Indiana

Field of 68 (Jeff Goodman):

• Today: KU as a 7 seed facing Oklahoma

• Previous: KU as a 6 seed facing Drake

Graham Doeren (a Kansas Jayhawk Bracketologist)

• Today: KU as a 6 seed facing Arkansas

And here’s what some of the lesser-known but historically top-ranking bracket projections forecast for KU:

YAGO Brackets:

• Latest: KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)

• Previous: No change

Glazewski-tology:

• Not updated: KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)

1-3-1 Sports:

• KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Vandy, Arkansas, WVU, Baylor)

• Previous: KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Ark, WVU, Baylor)

Help Spread the Word:

We’re approaching 16,300 subscribers — and I’m planning a special giveaway for when we hit it. Help support my work and grow our Jayhawk community by sharing this link with other KU fans in your network!

🏀 This video of Marcus Garrett learn he’s getting a 10-day NBA contract is a must watch! 🥺

🏀 This Christian Braun dunk on Rudy Gobert is insanely good

🏀 Watch Bill Self, AJ Storr, and Zeke Mayo’s postgame press conference after the UCF win.

🏀 These two postgame locker room scenes with AJ Storr will get you fired up (here’s one, here’s the other)

👕 Don’t Forget: Homefield Apparel is offering KUHearings subscribers an exclusive promo code.

• First-time customers: HEARINGS25 for 20% off

• Returning customers: HEARINGS10 for 10% off (use as often as you like)