KU's Chances🔮 From Arkansas to the Final Four

KU is the best 7-seed according to bookmakers, with better odds against St. John's than most expect

Author

Mike Vernon
March 18, 2025

  • 🏀 KU’s chances to make the Final Four

  • 📝 Quick Links: Expert NCAA Tourney picks

Support The Hearings by sending this to KU friends and fam. Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here.

EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

A Quick Thank You from Mike (The Scoops Guy)

First, I want to express my gratitude to all 16,277 of you who've made KUHearings what it is today. We're just 23 subscribers away from our old Allen Fieldhouse capacity of 16,300 — a milestone that seemed impossible when we started this journey.

We're building this community together, and to celebrate hitting 16,300, I've arranged a special thank you giveaway that will include a signed Bill Self championship basketball and other seriously legit gear/memorabilia.

I'll share all the details when we reach that mark.

Your insights, questions, and passion for KU basketball make this newsletter what it is. Now, let's dive into the bracket...

First Reaction: Odds for KU's NCAA Tournament Path

Well, it’s about as good as KU could’ve realistically asked for.

The Jayhawks received a 7-seed in the West Region and will face 10-seed Arkansas in Providence. The winner will likely face 2 seed St. John’s.

Three of the best coaches in modern college basketball history all in one quadrant is awesome (no offense to Omaha coach Chris Crutchfield).

To start, the oddsmakers wasted no time showing confidence in the Jayhawks:

KU vs. Arkansas: Odds & Projections

  • Betting Odds:

    • Kansas is a 4.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas

      • (I’m keeping an eye on possible Pro Money action)

  • The analytics support the confidence vs. Arkansas.

  • My take/Hearings

    • I’m Hearing good things about the State of the Jayhawks right now internally.

      • I think this KU team has been waiting to get to The Tournament since things really went south in Feb.

        • Yes, that’s a dangerous game to play, but it’s also completely reasonable.

    • Hopefully KU can play hungry and win the battle on the boards.

      • The Jayhawks will have a chip on their shoulder if they make Round 2… but they’ll need it Thursday as well.

    • I mostly feel good about this game for the Jayhawks, but we’re dealing with two wildly inconsistent teams.

      • Arkansas’ injury concerns are significant. I’ll monitor the latest closely.

    • You’ll get a detailed KU-Arkansas breakdown in tomorrow’s KUHearings newsletter.

KU’s Chances Beyond Arkansas

  • Betting Odds (via DraftKings)

    • Kansas is +210 to make the Sweet 16 ($100 pays $210)

      • This is the best number among 7 seeds

        • Marquette is +260

        • Saint Marys is +270

        • UCLA is +320

    • Kansas is +550 to make the Elite 8 ($100 pays $550)

    • Kansas is +1800 to make the Final Four ($100 pays $1800)

Potential Second Round: St. John's

The projections give Kansas a fighting chance here:

  • EvanMiya.com: KU as a 3.5-point underdog with a 37.9% win probability

  • CBBAnalytics.com: KU with a 39% probability to win.

    • This is the second best number for KU vs. a 2 seed

      • 42% probability vs. Michigan State

      • 35% vs. Tennessee

      • 33% vs. Gonzaga

Sweet Sixteen Possibilities

Should Kansas take down St John’s to reach the second weekend, the numbers suggest:

Elite Eight Scenarios

The analytics for potential Elite Eight matchups:

To make the Final Four

What It Means for Kansas

The Jayhawks avoided the dreaded 8/9 game and the immediate threat of facing a 1-seed in the second round. While Arkansas presents challenges, KU is rightfully favored.

The potential second-round matchup with St. John's is tough but winnable, and Kansas actually matches up decently with many teams in their region.

It’s a tough draw — but it’s not an unfair one, and that’s all the Jayhawks could ask for.

Help Spread the Word:

Tell your friends about today’s Hearing by copy and pasting this link into your group texts or on social media.

🏀 CBB expert tourney picks and brackets

  • Jay Bilas: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (ESPN)

  • Matt Norlander: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (CBS)

  • Gary Parrish: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (CBS)

  • Jerry Palm: Kansas loses to Arkansas (CBS)

  • Kyle Boone: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (CBS)

  • Joe Lunardi: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (ESPN)

  • Jeff Borzello: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (ESPN)

  • CJ Moore: Kansas beats Arkansas, loses to St. John’s (The Athletic)

  • Will Warren: Kansas to beat Arkansas, citing Ark injury concerns

⚾️ KU baseball officially has its first ranking since 2014 (No. 22)!

🏈 Check out this view of the Memorial Stadium renovations. It’s coming along!

🏀 KU celebrated Zeke Mayo scoring 2,000 career points.

🏐 KU volleyball landed the Indiana Player of the Year who was previously committed to Oregon.

What'd you think of today's Hearing?

Click to vote ⬇️

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

A reminder to help me out and spread the work. Let’s keep growing this thing together! You can spread the word telling fellow Jayhawks in your network to subscribe here!

Reply

or to participate.