First Reaction: Odds for KU's NCAA Tournament Path

Kansas finally has clarity on its NCAA Tournament path ahead. The Jayhawks received a 7-seed in the West Region and will face 10-seed Arkansas in Providence.

The oddsmakers wasted no time showing confidence in the Jayhawks:

• Betting line: Kansas -4.5 on DraftKings.

  • This number jumped to 5.5 right away and then came back down to 4.5.

• The analytics support this confidence:

  • KenPom projection: Kansas 73, Arkansas 69

  • Torvik projection: Kansas 73, Arkansas 69 (67% win probability)

  • EvanMiya.com: Kansas 75.7, Arkansas 69.5 (71.1% win probability)

Arkansas struggled with inconsistency this season but has the athleticism and talent to challenge the Jayhawks.

The Path Forward: Looking Ahead

Potential Second Round: St. John's

If Kansas advances, they'll likely face 2-seed St. John's, led by Rick Pitino in his remarkable turnaround season.

Against St. John's, the projections give Kansas a fighting chance:

• EvanMiya.com: KU as a 3.5-point underdog with a 37.9% win probability

• This makes St. John's one of the more favorable 2-seed matchups KU could have drawn

Sweet Sixteen Possibilities

Should Kansas take down St John’s to reach the second weekend, the numbers suggest:

• 61.3% win probability vs. 6-seed Missouri (a potential rivalry showdown)

• 70.2% win probability vs. 11-seed Drake

• 44.6% win probability vs. 3-seed Texas Tech (Big 12 rematch)

Elite Eight Scenarios

The analytics for potential Elite Eight matchups:

• 25.2% win probability vs. 1-seed Florida

• 43.4% win probability vs. 4-seed Maryland

• 67.4% win probability vs. 5-seed Memphis

If KU wins, it would likely play 2 seed St. Johns.

Here are the odds. EvanMiya.com projects KU as a 3.5-point underdog, which isn’t too bad compared to the other possible two seeds. It gives the Jayhawks a 37.9% chance to win.

Possible sweet 16 matchups

KU has a 61.3% chance to beat 6 seed Missouri and 70.2% chance to play 11 seed Drake.

KU has a 44.6% chance vs. No. 3 Texas Tech and an 84.7% chance vs. 14 seed UNC-Wilmington (unlikely).

Possible Elite Eight matchups

KU has a 25.2% chance vs. 1 seed Florida

KU has a 43.4% chance vs. 4 seed Maryland

KU has a 67.4% chance vs. 5 seed Memphis.

What It Means for Kansas

The Jayhawks avoided the dreaded 8/9 game and the immediate threat of facing a 1-seed in the second round. While Arkansas presents challenges, KU is rightfully favored.

The potential second-round matchup with St. John's is tough but winnable, and Kansas actually matches up decently with many teams in their region.

It’s a tough draw — but it’s not an unfair one, and that’s all the Jayhawks could ask for.

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