KU-KState: Extra Tension and Pro Money 💰

Beef, bets, and boards

  • 💰 Pro Money is on the Jayhawks

  • 🎥 Good watch from UConn’s Dan Hurley

  • 🔒 A little extra KU-KState Drama 👀

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

This is not betting advice. At all. Sometimes by tracking line movement and betting splits, you can get a feel for how “pro bettors” think a game will play out. This is my interpretation of what the betting odds could say about the upcoming game. Lines and splits can be attributed to VSiN.com

  • Opening Line: Kansas favored by 10.5 vs. KState

  • Current Line: Kansas favored by 11 vs. K-State (10:51am CT)

    • Betting Splits: 

      • 61% of the bets are on Kansas to cover.

      • 72% of the money is on Kansas to cover.

My Take: It appears there’s pro money on the Jayhawks to cover tonight.

My guess is that pro bettors view it as a strong spot for Kansas: The Jayhawks are coming off back-to-back losses, playing a revenge game at home… with a point spread that feels larger than it should be. I’m even seeing some betting lines of 11.5 start to pop up at different books.

I’ll be watching for the following three things tonight.

  1. Post Scoring Efficiency: Kansas State is one of the most efficient teams in the country at defending the post. The Jayhawks will likely play inside-out, and they’ll either need to dominate inside or make a few threes early to create some space. (Yes, this is true every game… but even more so today). This tweet is a good, accidental explainer of KU’s issues this year.

  2. Rebounding: Kansas State isn’t a good defensive rebounding team. It gives up a lot of offensive rebounds. But KU couldn’t take advantage of it in the first matchup. The Jayhawks got outrebounded 26-16 between the second half and overtime. That’s the difference in the game — and it can’t happen again.

  3. Pride: When Bill Self benches a player, he wants to see him respond with fire. The Jayhawks don’t lose multiple games in a row often for the same kind of mentality. I expect Kansas to respond with fire in a similar way as a team tonight…

(The VIP scoop later in the newsletter explains why there’s a little extra tension between the teams. You can upgrade here to get exclusive access to the Hearing).

My Prediction: KU covers the opening 10.5-point spread.

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You’re gonna want to watch the first 30 seconds of the clip below. UCONN coach Dan Hurley talks about the Huskies winning their first outright conference title since 1999.

Comments like this from one of the better coaches in college hoops help give some much-needed perspective on the Jayhawks this year. Conference titles aren’t a given.

There’s a reason no one else in the modern era has come close to what KU has pulled off the last 20 years…

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