KU-Texas: Pro Money vs. The Matchup

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Before The Bets

Kansas-Texas is a classic “bet the situation, not the matchup” kind of game.1 I'll explain how I'm thinking it through and where Pro Money is landing.

• The Source is concerned about this matchup, and I see why. Texas is the kind of long, athletic team that has given Kansas trouble the last few years.

• Texas is coming off a huge and physical win over Kansas State. Meanwhile, KU is returning home after a stinker of a road loss. In theory, Texas has momentum. 

• KU runs a ton of ball screens and pick-and-roll. That action is losing value over time as Big 12 teams know KU struggles if the ball-handler finishes the pick-and-roll possession.

  • KU ranks in the 37th-percentile in scoring when the ball-handler shoots on a pick-and-roll. More than 16% of its plays are graded as finishing this way, which is one of the highest marks in the country.

• Everything about this on paper looks good for Texas, except…

• This game is a must-win for Kansas, and the team is returning home to get it done. Historically, Bill Self teams have performed well in this spot — especially in February.

• It appears Pro Bettors are taking the situation over the matchup.

The Bets

TODAY: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Shouldn’t Have Fired Rick Barnes Longhorns

• Opening spread: Kansas favored by 3

• Current spread: KU favored by 4.5 (as of 1:45pm CT)

  • DraftKings is reporting 65% of bettors and 72% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

  • Action Network is reporting 65% of bettors and 92% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on The Jayhawks.

My Take:

There is clear Pro Action on Kansas here. The matchup isn’t great. Texas is hot. Kansas is banged up. But it’s a must-win for the Jayhawks at home. My hunch is that Vegas views Texas as a tad overvalued and Kansas just slightly undervalued.

To me, this comes down to if you think at least two of these three will make shots at home: Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and Gradey Dick.

Also, I want to shout out KU alum and college hoops betting expert Shane Jackson. He wrote a nice breakdown where he likes KU’s point total under. Give him a follow on Twitter.