Selection Sunday📊 KU's Best & Worst Possible Draws

• 🏀 KU’s best and worst possible draws

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Current Projections Update

As Selection Sunday arrives, KU's projected seed has shifted slightly downward from our Tuesday update:

ESPN (Joe Lunardi):

• Today: 7 seed facing Oklahoma

• Previous: 6 seed facing the winner of SDSU-Indiana

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm):

• Today: 6 seed facing the winner of Boise St-Indiana

• Previous: 7 seed facing Arkansas

Field of 68 (Jeff Goodman):

• Today: 8 seed facing New Mexico

• Previous: 7 seed facing Oklahoma

Graham Doeren (a Kansas Jayhawk Bracketologist)

• Today: 7 seed facing Utah St

• Previous: 6 seed facing Arkansas

And here’s what some of the lesser-known but historically top-ranking bracket projections forecast for KU:

• YAGO Brackets: 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Oklahoma, Vandy, Arkansas)

• Glazewski-tology: 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Arkansas)

• 1-3-1 Sports: 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Vandy, Arkansas, Oklahoma)

The Surprising Numbers: KU's Win Probabilities

Data scientist Evan Miya's projections reveal some fascinating insights about KU's tournament chances. The Jayhawks could be a favorite vs. some of the possible 3 seeds.

First Round Possibilities

• Best Potential Matchups 👍

  • vs. Utah St: 78.6% win probability (8.8-point favorite)

  • vs. Vandy: 78.6% win probability (8.8-point favorite)

  • vs. Boise St: 74.8% win probability (7-point favorite)

  • vs. Indiana: 72.3% win probability (6.5-point favorite)

• Concerning Matchups 👎

  • vs. VCU: Just 53.2% win probability (0.9-point favorite)

  • vs. New Mexico: 62.6% win probability (3.7-point favorite)

  • vs. Georgia: 67.7% win probability (5-point favorite)

• Good but Not Great 🤷‍♂️

  • vs. Oklahoma: 70.8% win probability (6-point favorite)

  • vs. Arkansas: 71.1% win probability (6.2-point favorite)

  • vs. Drake: 70.4% win probability (5.7-point favorite)

  • vs. SDSU: 70.9% win probability (5.9-point favorite)

The Eye-Opening 3-Seed Scenarios

Perhaps the most surprising data: KU would actually be favored against some potential 3 seeds:

• Favorable 3-Seeds 👍

  • vs. Kentucky: 65.9% win probability (4.6-point favorite)

  • vs. Texas A&M: 56% win probability (1.6-point favorite)

• Toss-Up 3-Seeds 🤷‍♂️

  • vs. Wisconsin: 46.7% win probability (0.9-point underdog)

• Challenging 3-Seeds 👎

  • vs. Maryland: 43% win probability (2-point underdog)

  • (Texas Tech and Iowa St also possible 3 seeds)

Looking Ahead: 2-Seed Matchups

• More Favorable 2-Seeds 👍

  • vs. Michigan St: 41.8% win probability (2.3-point underdog)

  • vs. St. Johns: 38% win probability (3.4-point underdog)

• Tougher 2-Seeds 🤷‍♂️

  • vs. Tennessee: 37% win probability (3.5-point underdog)

• Avoid If Possible 👎

  • vs. Alabama: 35.3% win probability (4.4-point underdog)

The 1-Seed Gauntlet

None of the potential 1-seed matchups look promising, but some paths are slightly less daunting:

• vs. Auburn: 26.2% win probability (7-point underdog)

• vs. Houston: 24.5% win probability (7.3-point underdog)

• vs. Florida: 25.3% win probability (7.4-point underdog)

• vs. Duke: 18.4% win probability (9.8-point underdog)

What It All Means

The data validates what KU fans have known for years: Everything comes down to the draw.

The most surprising takeaway? If KU lands in a region with Kentucky or Texas A&M as the 3-seed, they might actually be favored in a potential second-round matchup despite the seed differential.

The bracket reveal comes out at 6:00 PM ET on CBS. You know I’ll be back with a complete breakdown once the bracket is announced.

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⚾️ KU baseball continues its tear, hitting 6 HRs against Baylor on Saturday.

🏈 NFL Draft expert Todd McShay gave serious love to Devin Neal.

🏀 How crazy was the 1985 Kansas coaching staff?