KU's Offensive Collapse šŸ¤¬šŸ“‰

Plus KU-ASU Pro Money BreakdownšŸ’°

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  • šŸˆ Breaking Down KUā€™s In-Game Adjustment Issues

  • šŸ”’šŸ’°KU-Arizona State: Pro Money on KU

  • šŸ“ Quick Links: Expert KU Picks and Previews

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Adjusting the Adjustments: Analyzing KU's In-Game Struggles

This is part two of this weekā€™s series on KUā€™s offense, based on insights from two anonymous, active college football coaches.

We all see it: KU's offense comes out swinging ā€” the team has a chance to win ā€” and then everything falls apart.

So, I dug deeper to find out what was really going on.

An anonymous D-1 coach suggested I study KUā€™s offense after its first 15 to 20 playsā€”the scripted ones. He believed that comparing the opening plays to the rest of the game could reveal whether KUā€™s in-game adjustments are working.

The results got my attention.

(Note: Iā€™m ignoring the Lindenwood game for this article. Iā€™d like to never watch or think about them playing football again šŸ˜‚)

Letā€™s break it down.

1st Qtr āž”ļø 2nd Qtr: Strong Starts, Significant Declines

KUā€™s decline from the 1st to 2nd Qtr

Success Rate: Measures KUā€™s efficiency per down and distance. A higher percentage indicates a more efficient offense. Anything above 50% is excellent. Anything under 40% is below average.

  • KUā€™s average 1st quarter success rate this season is an excellent 59%. This is a great mark.

    • Unfortunately, KU ranks No. 61 in 1st quarter scoring. The efficient offense hasnā€™t turned into big leads.

  • It gets worse from there. KUā€™s success rate drops sharply to 34% in the second quarter ā€” a significant decline and below-average mark.

Compared to last season:

  • 2024 Season:

    • KU's offensive success rate has declined from the 1st to the 2nd quarter in every game since the opener.

    • The 2nd quarter success rate has exceeded 40% in just one game. KU has been below average in three of four 2nd quarters.

  • 2023 Season:

    • KU's offensive success rate declined from the 1st to the 2nd quarter in only 50% of games (6 games improved, 6 declined).

    • The second-quarter success rate was above 40% in nine out of twelve games.

      • There was no significant drop-off.

Note the national rank in points per quarter

The Takeaway:

KUā€™s come out strong with a successful early game plan. Team preparation doesnā€™t seem to be an issue either, as evidenced by the high 1st quarter success rate.

However, the consistent decline in the second quarter suggests that opponents are making effective defensive adjustments that KU's offense isn't countering successfully.

Teams are figuring out the Jayhawks ā€” and KU canā€™t seem to punch back.

Entire Game Efficiency: Downward Trends šŸ“‰

To go even deeper, let's examine KUā€™s offensive performance by each drive throughout the entire game.

Itā€™s not a pretty look.

KUā€™s decline after its opening two drives per half

(Expected Points Added, or EPA, measures the value of individual plays in terms of points. Positive EPA means the play increased KUā€™s expected points; negative EPA means it decreased them.

In other words, itā€™s an insightful way to assess KUā€™s adjustments after its opening drives.)

  • First Two Drives of Each Half:

    • Average EPA per Drive: +3.53

      • The offense executes well on scripted plays, both at the start of the game and after halftime.

  • Subsequent Drives:

    • Average EPA per Drive: -1.36

      • Offensive efficiency drops significantly as the progresses, indicating struggles with in-game adjustments.

  • Rush Yards Per Carry:

    • 1st half: 6.25 yards

    • 2nd half: 4 yards

      • 4th quarter: 3.2 yards

  • Rush Yards Implication: Teams are figuring out KUā€™s pass attack and subsequent struggles. Theyā€™re stacking the box and shutting KU down as the game progresses.

The Big Takeaway: A New and Clear Problem Costing KU Games šŸ˜¬

KUā€™s offensive efficiency clearly and consistently deteriorates after its initial scripted drives.

  • Credit Where It's Due: The coaches deserve recognition for developing effective game plans that lead to strong starts.

  • Room for Criticism: However, the staffā€™s inability to adapt after the initial plays warrants criticism.

Part of the blame belongs to the players. KUā€™s passing issues are becoming apparent to defenses during the gameā€”and the Jayhawks canā€™t (or arenā€™t) doing anything about it.

Either way, KUā€™s decline in offensive performance through a game is a new issue this season, coinciding with the arrival of the new offensive coordinator.

Moving forward, KU needs to anticipate the weak spots its opponents will try to exploit. This brings me back to the anonymous coach quotes from earlier in the week, in which Grimes was described as more of a system guy.

This analysis clearly suggests the Jayhawks need to be more flexible. At the very least, they need to better anticipate defensive adjustments.

And that responsibility falls on KUā€™s coaches.

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What the Betting Market Says about KU-ASU

  • šŸŸļø Kansas (1-4) @ Arizona State (3-1), 7pm CT Saturday

  • šŸ“ŗ ESPN2

  • šŸ’° Kansas is a 2.5-point underdog

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

  • Opening Line: Kansas as a 1.5 point underdog.

  • Current Line: Kansas as a 2.5 point underdog (2:08pm CT, Friday)

    ā€¢ Betting Splits: 34% of bets on Kansas, 68% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)

šŸ’° Analysis: Pro Money on KU

This is a betting split I like to see for Kansas.

The majority of bettors are on Arizona State ā€” but the bigger bets are on the Jayhawks.

The line opened at -1.5 for Arizona State and jumped to Arizona State -3 within hours. The quick reaction was to fade Kansas. However, that started changing on Wednesday.

The KU line moved to +2.5 and has held steady at that number for the last two days.

Pro Money appears to be on the Jayhawks.

Prediction: Iā€™ve predicted KU to win each of the last four games. Iā€™m doing it again Saturday. I canā€™t believe itā€¦

Kansas 31, Arizona State 28.

A resource for you to find other predictions and breakdowns for KU-ASU:

šŸˆ ESPNā€™s Bill Connelly is the leader in college football metrics. His SP+ formula is once again picking the Jayhawks. See his entire Week 6 spreadsheet here.

šŸˆ Kansas got an outright win pick on the Cover 3 Podcast this week. Tom Fornelli supposedly picked Kansas as well but I havenā€™t been able to locate it.

šŸˆ Arizona Stateā€™s ā€œLocked On Sun Devilsā€ posted a 30-minute game preview on YouTube.

šŸˆ And hereā€™s Big 12 Studiosā€™ 60-second preview.

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