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KU's Offensive Collapse š¤¬š
Plus KU-ASU Pro Money Breakdownš°
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š Breaking Down KUās In-Game Adjustment Issues
šš°KU-Arizona State: Pro Money on KU
š Quick Links: Expert KU Picks and Previews
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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.
Adjusting the Adjustments: Analyzing KU's In-Game Struggles
This is part two of this weekās series on KUās offense, based on insights from two anonymous, active college football coaches.
We all see it: KU's offense comes out swinging ā the team has a chance to win ā and then everything falls apart.
So, I dug deeper to find out what was really going on.
An anonymous D-1 coach suggested I study KUās offense after its first 15 to 20 playsāthe scripted ones. He believed that comparing the opening plays to the rest of the game could reveal whether KUās in-game adjustments are working.
The results got my attention.
(Note: Iām ignoring the Lindenwood game for this article. Iād like to never watch or think about them playing football again š)
Letās break it down.
1st Qtr ā”ļø 2nd Qtr: Strong Starts, Significant Declines
KUās decline from the 1st to 2nd Qtr
Success Rate: Measures KUās efficiency per down and distance. A higher percentage indicates a more efficient offense. Anything above 50% is excellent. Anything under 40% is below average.
KUās average 1st quarter success rate this season is an excellent 59%. This is a great mark.
Unfortunately, KU ranks No. 61 in 1st quarter scoring. The efficient offense hasnāt turned into big leads.
It gets worse from there. KUās success rate drops sharply to 34% in the second quarter ā a significant decline and below-average mark.
Compared to last season:
2024 Season:
KU's offensive success rate has declined from the 1st to the 2nd quarter in every game since the opener.
The 2nd quarter success rate has exceeded 40% in just one game. KU has been below average in three of four 2nd quarters.
2023 Season:
KU's offensive success rate declined from the 1st to the 2nd quarter in only 50% of games (6 games improved, 6 declined).
The second-quarter success rate was above 40% in nine out of twelve games.
There was no significant drop-off.
Note the national rank in points per quarter
The Takeaway:
KUās come out strong with a successful early game plan. Team preparation doesnāt seem to be an issue either, as evidenced by the high 1st quarter success rate.
However, the consistent decline in the second quarter suggests that opponents are making effective defensive adjustments that KU's offense isn't countering successfully.
Teams are figuring out the Jayhawks ā and KU canāt seem to punch back.
Entire Game Efficiency: Downward Trends š
To go even deeper, let's examine KUās offensive performance by each drive throughout the entire game.
Itās not a pretty look.
KUās decline after its opening two drives per half
(Expected Points Added, or EPA, measures the value of individual plays in terms of points. Positive EPA means the play increased KUās expected points; negative EPA means it decreased them.
In other words, itās an insightful way to assess KUās adjustments after its opening drives.)
First Two Drives of Each Half:
Average EPA per Drive: +3.53
The offense executes well on scripted plays, both at the start of the game and after halftime.
Subsequent Drives:
Average EPA per Drive: -1.36
Offensive efficiency drops significantly as the progresses, indicating struggles with in-game adjustments.
Rush Yards Per Carry:
1st half: 6.25 yards
2nd half: 4 yards
4th quarter: 3.2 yards
Rush Yards Implication: Teams are figuring out KUās pass attack and subsequent struggles. Theyāre stacking the box and shutting KU down as the game progresses.
The Big Takeaway: A New and Clear Problem Costing KU Games š¬
KUās offensive efficiency clearly and consistently deteriorates after its initial scripted drives.
Credit Where It's Due: The coaches deserve recognition for developing effective game plans that lead to strong starts.
Room for Criticism: However, the staffās inability to adapt after the initial plays warrants criticism.
Part of the blame belongs to the players. KUās passing issues are becoming apparent to defenses during the gameāand the Jayhawks canāt (or arenāt) doing anything about it.
Either way, KUās decline in offensive performance through a game is a new issue this season, coinciding with the arrival of the new offensive coordinator.
Moving forward, KU needs to anticipate the weak spots its opponents will try to exploit. This brings me back to the anonymous coach quotes from earlier in the week, in which Grimes was described as more of a system guy.
This analysis clearly suggests the Jayhawks need to be more flexible. At the very least, they need to better anticipate defensive adjustments.
And that responsibility falls on KUās coaches.
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What the Betting Market Says about KU-ASU
šļø Kansas (1-4) @ Arizona State (3-1), 7pm CT Saturday
šŗ ESPN2
š° Kansas is a 2.5-point underdog
To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.
Opening Line: Kansas as a 1.5 point underdog.
Current Line: Kansas as a 2.5 point underdog (2:08pm CT, Friday)
ā¢ Betting Splits: 34% of bets on Kansas, 68% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)
š° Analysis: Pro Money on KU
This is a betting split I like to see for Kansas.
The majority of bettors are on Arizona State ā but the bigger bets are on the Jayhawks.
The line opened at -1.5 for Arizona State and jumped to Arizona State -3 within hours. The quick reaction was to fade Kansas. However, that started changing on Wednesday.
The KU line moved to +2.5 and has held steady at that number for the last two days.
Pro Money appears to be on the Jayhawks.
Prediction: Iāve predicted KU to win each of the last four games. Iām doing it again Saturday. I canāt believe itā¦
Kansas 31, Arizona State 28.
A resource for you to find other predictions and breakdowns for KU-ASU:
š ESPNās Bill Connelly is the leader in college football metrics. His SP+ formula is once again picking the Jayhawks. See his entire Week 6 spreadsheet here.
š Kansas got an outright win pick on the Cover 3 Podcast this week. Tom Fornelli supposedly picked Kansas as well but I havenāt been able to locate it.
š Arizona Stateās āLocked On Sun Devilsā posted a 30-minute game preview on YouTube.
š And hereās Big 12 Studiosā 60-second preview.
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