Pro Money is All Over KU-Arkansas💰

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

In This Newsletter

1. The Source talks Arkansas 🙏

2. Betting markets and my take 💰

The Source Talks Razorbacks 🙏

I had a quick chat with The Source on Arkansas. It’s gonna be a tough one for the Jayhawks. Here are the key takeaways:

• The Source compared Arkansas to a bigger, worse shooting Oklahoma State team (with two lottery picks).

• The matchups are tricky for both teams. The Source believes Dajuan Harris can disrupt star freshman PG Nick Smith. At the same time, Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick won’t be used to facing this much size and athleticism.

  • Note: I don’t love Arkansas’ ability to go 1-on-1 at multiple positions. They will look to creating advantages off KU’s switch-heavy ball-screen defense. This is the kind of spot where Bill Self would make in-game adjustments after getting a feel for the game.

• There is a clear advantage for KU in just how bad Arkansas has been at shooting from deep. The Razorbacks rank No. 305 in the country in 3-point% on Kenpom.

• Kansas loses its edge if the game turns into a transition battle like it did against Howard. Arkansas is the more athletic team, which KU won’t be used to.

  • Note: I have to wonder if this is a bit overstated. The Razorbacks grade out as a “very good” transition offense and “good” transition defense. KU gets “excellent” grades in both categories.

• The Source wants to see KU jump out to a quick lead. Forcing Arkansas to shoot their way back into a game will play into the Jayhawks’ hands.

• Ultimately, The Jayhawks have an edge in experience and all-around ability. If KU can rebound and control the game (by avoiding a track meet), they should be OK… “Will be close,” says The Source.

Betting Market Breakdown

TODAY: Kansas vs. Arkansas. Round 2.

• Opening spread: Kansas favored by 4.5 points

• Current spread: Kansas favored by 4 points (as of 11:32 AM CT)

  • DraftKings is reporting 83% of bettors and 55% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

  • Action Network is reporting 53% of bettors and 39% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread.

My Take:

You don’t like to see betting splits like this as a Kansas fan. The Pros jumped on Arkansas early, quickly pushing the line down to -3.5. The public is on KU, but the money is on Arkansas.

HOWEVER, there has been an interesting trend this morning. The betting line jumped all the way back to KU -4.5 at one point, before settling back in at -4. Late money matters just as much as early money, and it appears some sharp action has come in on the Jayhawks this morning.

I’m taking Kansas. I got them at -3.5. I am betting it because I’m a Homer and nothing else. If the Hawks go down, I go down with ‘em.