• 🏈 KU-WVU: 3 quick things to watch and a prediction

• 🏈💰 Pro Money Analysis

• 📝 Quick Links: Expert Predictions on KU

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EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.

Kansas-WVU: 3 Quick Things to Watch

• 🏟️ Kansas @ WVU, 11am CT Saturday

• 📺 ESPN2

• 💰 Kansas is a 2-point underdog

• 📊 Last games:

  • 📉📉 Kansas 20, UNLV 23.

  • 📉 WVU 34, Pitt 38.

1) Can Jalon Daniels take advantage of West Virginia’s struggling pass defense?

If there was a Big 12 game to get Jalon Daniels right, this should be the one.

WVU’s pass defense has been bad. The box score shows it, and the advanced metrics really show it.

Nerd moment🤓

• The Mountaineers rank No. 129 out of 134 teams in expected points added per pass play.

• WVU’s pass coverage grade from Pro Football Focus is No. 130 out of 134 teams.

  • WVU ranks in the bottom 1% in allowing “explosive” pass plays.

  • Last year, KU’s offense graded in the top 99% in “explosive” pass plays.

    • KU’s in the 60% range this season.

• WVU’s pass rush grades out as No. 95 out of 134 teams.

  • The worst pass defense Kansas faced last year was Cincinnati (graded No. 124). The Jayhawks won that game 49-16.

What it means: WVU’s pass defense has been awful and given up a ton of big plays this year. So, this is an opportunity for both teams to correct a troubling trajectory to open Big 12 play.

The matchup is even favorable for new OC Jeff Grimes. In three years at Baylor, Grimes led offenses scored 45, 40, and 31 points against WVU.

The chance is here — KU can change its season Saturday.

2) Who can win up front?

WVU is at its best when running the ball and defending against the run. KU’s defense has been mediocre against the run — with some good and bad moments.

WVU’s defensive front is in the top 80% in stuff rate and offensive line yards allowed. In other words, the Mountaineers haven’t let other teams get much push at all.

KU’s offense is in the top 90% in both categories. Its line has dominated when running the ball.

I’m curious to see who can win up front, given both teams’ success and reliance on the run game so far this year.

3) Can Kansas make it easy on itself?

This one surprised me.

Kansas ranks No. 132 in field position to start its drives. The Jayhawks are just making it really hard on themselves.

I said this in Wednesday’s breakdown: KU’s numbers aren’t that bad. The analytics still indicate a pretty good team.

But when you’ve lost two games by possession, everything goes under the microscope. And the Jayhawks are giving themselves more chances to make mistakes with poor field position.

It’ll something I’m watching for against WVU.

Prediction: Kansas 34, WVU 28

Both of these teams are 0-3 vs. the spread this year. I’ve wrongly predicted a KU win the last two weeks…

I still think KU is the better team here, and WVU’s struggles defending the pass should create an opportunity for the Jayhawks to get right.

Take a look at ESPN’s Bill Connely’s predictions for KU-WVU. You can click the link below or here.

He has the Jayhawks winning by three. It’s abnormal for Connelly’s numbers to be this many points off from Vegas…

I’m going with the idea that KU is a much better team than its shown so far this year. I know this isn’t a hot take.

Instead, the hot take is that believing KU’s flaws can be corrected.

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What the Betting Market Says about KU-WVU

If this is your first season with KUhearings, I use my background to analyze the betting market as a unique way of previewing KU games.

What this means: I can generally get a sense of what ‘pro bettors’ or ‘smart money’ thinks will happen in a game. Now, even ‘pros’ are only right around 53-55% of the time… so this is just a slight edge on the public market.

To be clear: The following is just my interpretation of the betting market and a unique way to look at a game. It is in no way betting advice or suggestions.

• Opening Line: Kansas favored by 2.5 points

• Current Line: Kansas favored by 2 points (as of 1:24pm CT)

  • Betting Splits: 35% of bets on Kansas, 33% of money on Kansas on DraftKings (via VSiN)

• Opening total points scored line: 57

• Current total: 56.5 (as of 11:34am CT)

  • Betting Splits: 58% of bets on the over, 37% of the money on the over

💰 Analysis:

There isn’t substantial or significant pro money that I can see here. At least, there wasn’t a moment where a pro clearly moved the line with a bet.

With no major signal, the line moving half a point in KU’s direction is a decent indicator — especially when the majority of the money is on WVU.

Vegas wants a KU win, and that’s enough for me.

🏀 KU dropped its annual post bootcamp picture in the locker room. You can see it here. Flory appears to be… in good shape.

🏈 In case you missed it, KU held a ceremony as the final steal beam for the opening phase of the new stadium. I’ll have more to come on the stadium next week.

Here are some of my favorite links from the ceremony:

• KU players signed the beam before it was placed in the stadium.

• Watch Lance Leipold and Devin Neal address the crowd at the ceremony.

• The Lawrence Journal-World reports KU was surprised that it may have to finish the east side of the stadium before it can start other developments in the area. Give it a read. I’m working to get more on this…

🏈 Scott Van Pelt gave out the Jayhawks as one of his picks this week. Watch the segment here.

🏈 The Cover 3 Podcast is quality stuff. They’re taking the Jayhawks as well… and they say it’s now or never for KU. Bud Elliott in particular has done a good job handicapping games this season. Watch the segment here.

🏈 Notable Big 12 Games 🏈

• Arizona State @ Texas Tech (-3.5); Saturday at 2:30pm CT.

• No. 12 Utah (-1) @ No. 14 Oklahoma St.; Saturday at 3pm CT.

• Kansas State (-7) @ BYU; Saturday at 9:30pm CT.